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A great thinker said we would discover the way. Nothing is frozen with cryptocurrencies. The crypto market monitors its own rules, often fleeting, sometimes unpredictable. The certainty yesterday became doubts today. Between geopolitical changes, economic cycles, technological breakthroughs and tweets that cause Nasdaq everything can change … or remain desperately the same. But if historical monuments are vaccinated, can we still believe in a four -year cycle?
Bitcoin in half: promises down, ascending stability?
The Bitcoins promises in half They resonated for a long time like a prophecy in the world of crypto. Every four years the price of minors is divided by two. This new rarity, which was supposed to support the BTC price, often preceded the bull market.
But according to Sandeep Nailwalwhat -founder of polygon, This model begins to run out of steam.
Says that ” Market repairs have become less brutalabout 30 to 40 % », Far from -90 % of previous cycles. According to him The rise of the power of institutional actors And the ripening of the market crypto contributes to this stabilization.
We are less witnesses of roller coaster and more with a winding road, dotted with soft slopes and unforeseen turns.
- Bitcoin course decreases less during the bear phases;
- Bull markets are longer, but less explosive;
- ETF provides BTC stability and visibility;
- The flows focus on the upper part of the basket on the crypt.
Can we then talk about the end of the cycle or simply about changing the cycle?
Is Analysts a debate: Is the crypto cycle broken or just confused?
For some analysts, the 4 -year cycle still has large remnants. Crypto.com platform reminds Four classic phases : accumulation, increase, distribution, fall. This diagram worked well on the past cycles of bitcoins. However, voices increase. For example, Miles Deutscher analyst thinks the bull markets are now spread.
Accumulation does not always lead to an immediate rise.
It also remarks The first flows for BTC, then towards Ethereum and finally on altcoins, After an increasingly desynchronized rotation. This weakens the idea of a regular cycle.
Other experts evoke the intersection. Collecting in half Bitcoin is no longer as mechanical as before. The cards blurred several parameters : Persistent inflation, high interest rate, institutional acceptance, financial derivatives. Even BTC dominance data shows a stronger concentration of capital only on a few active.
Since then, the classic crypto cycle has no longer appeared to be so readable. But is it a natural development of a growing market or a sign of deep disruption?
Perspectives: Adapt your deposits to the mutation market
Obviously, the Krypto market 2025 is no longer the 2013 or even 2017 market. Input of institutional investors has changed the situation. Derivated products such as Bitcoin ETF now weigh a severe price dynamics.
Collective euphoria has retreated Calculated caution.
Moreover, the macroeconomic conditions do not earn the formation of a classic bull. The rates remain high, the liquidity remains low and the United States monitors. Still, There is no risk of volumes. BTC resists and in recent days anchored around $ 84,000. The bear market has not disappeared, but it seems to be less wild.
On X, Miles Deutscher summarizes this feeling well:
The cycle is not dead, has become more vague.
Maybe it’s it, the reality of the crypto game today: a game of songs where the beacons disappear one by one.
- Bitcoin ETFs release more than $ 1 billion a week;
- BTC dominance is almost 54 %, which is a record since 2021.
The market is changing, it’s a fact. But how do you watch your course when ancient models become outdated? Analysts already agree that Bitcoin 2024 did not have the expected effect in half. According to recent analysis, the expected increase in BTC will slowly take place. The classic “Halving Then Bull Run” runs out of steam. Investors must now think about cycles based on finer reading economic data and market behavior.
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Blockchain and crypto revolution are going on! And the day when the impacts will be felt on the most vulnerable economy of this world, I would say against all the promises that I was there for something
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.